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Post by buttonpresser4815 on Dec 24, 2006 16:55:29 GMT -5
How do you think WWIII will get started? GS and I have been discussing and we think that severe political tensions will be rising in the Middle East and other places nearby because the US and Russia are building up nuclear programs for nations that are rivals, perhaps enough to cause a World War. Anyway, what do you think?
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Post by Raistlin Majere on Dec 24, 2006 19:12:34 GMT -5
It's possible. I understand that Russia is becoming, how would you say, somewhat antagonistic? In reality, though, they are still something of a wreck compared to the world's super-powerful countries. If Russia were to establish strong ties with China, though, that scale would likely tip. If that isn't the case, then its only a matter of time before the earth's oil supply is sucked dry, and by then we'll probably all be breathing smog for air. Mass panic follows, and the dogs will fight for the last piece of meat until all they all end up killing each other over it.
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Post by The Rogue on Dec 24, 2006 22:26:31 GMT -5
Russia already has strong ties with China. They've never been strong enough, but then again, who knows? There really hasn't been a need for a nuclear alliance. Now, I say that it comes about in a few different scenarios:
1) The US is defeated in Iraq, and Iran feels that it is imensly superior to the US. Other countries who hate the US, such as Cuba, Venezuala, Belarus, and Syria would also feel that way. They would join together, and attack the US directly. The US's allies would come to their aid and retaliate, the other countries would make allies and retaliate. Thus causing WW3.
2) Things really heat up over Iran's nuclear deal, and there is a major split in the permenant seats of the UN Security Council. The US, UK, and France up against Russia and China. Iran is eventually invaded by NATO forces and causes WW3.
3) Russia becomes communist again before the 2008 Russian elections. Causing a new Cold War and a great new potential for WW3.
4) All countries who hate the US join together very soon and attack for no real reason except for the fact that they hate the country. WW3 would engulf.
5) A direct conflict between Iran and Israel develops. Countries backing Iran would fight countries backing Israel. WW3.
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Post by Raistlin Majere on Dec 24, 2006 23:46:46 GMT -5
North Korea would no doubt have a hand to play in that game, as well. They would most likely join hands with the countries you suggest in #4.
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Post by Jarlaxle on Dec 24, 2006 23:56:35 GMT -5
I suspect that the US might start the war. The US is generally the most powerful country on the globe, however it won't be longed until the US has more competition. The US might start it out of fear for losing their supremacy and try to stop it somehow to maintain it. Such an action would spark a war.
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Post by buttonpresser4815 on Dec 26, 2006 12:13:21 GMT -5
I think GS basically has all of the possible scenarios figured out that are most likely to occur in today's political world. Do you think it is at all possible that a random nation will launch a secret nuclear missile at another random nation and will cause a phenomonon similar to the assassination of Franz Ferdinand that led to WWI?
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Post by The Rogue on Dec 26, 2006 16:27:35 GMT -5
If that happens at all, it will be launched by the United States into Tehran, Iran. North Korea only has one bomb, anyways, and it is estimated that the most they can build is 8.
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Post by Raistlin Majere on Dec 26, 2006 20:20:27 GMT -5
8 would be enough to become a threat, and if they had allies behind them, they might have a great deal more than 8 nuclear devices at their disposal.
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Post by The Rogue on Dec 26, 2006 20:34:42 GMT -5
But, they've already had one test, thus using their one "bomb". They now need to have a larger test to see if a larger bomb will work. That would mean that they can only build about 6 after that. North Korea wouldn't have any allies except Iran, I believe. Not even China is supporting their nuclear program.
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Post by Raistlin Majere on Dec 26, 2006 20:44:31 GMT -5
True, but neither country is a supporter of the United States. It has been suggested many times within threads like this (Your outcome #4, in fact) that all (Or many) anti-US countries could, under extremely dire circumstances, unite for the purpose of bringing the US down. You are likely correct, that North Korea is not yet a major role on the world stage, and they may not become one, and you are likely correct in that they will have little to no support from other countries, but if they can manage, with enough time, to construct 6 (Give or take) nuclear bombs without their program being shut down for them by the UN (Unlikely in itself without a bloody outcome), then they would have some standing on the stage. A great many things would have to happen in order for such a circumstance to come about, addmitedly.
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Post by The Rogue on Dec 26, 2006 21:35:20 GMT -5
Yes, I would agree with everything said there.
I think that my outcome #4 is probably likely to happen soon, probably if they invade one more country while still in the Mideast. I think that September 11, 2001 marked the beginning of the end of the age of US dominance.
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Post by Raistlin Majere on Dec 27, 2006 22:30:58 GMT -5
It is possible, but it isn't a simple issue by any means. One military consideration would have to be that, even if the United States was outnumbered, it would take an enormous toll on the invading countries, because they would not easily fall. Besides that, I find it somewhat difficult to think that countries like China or Russia (Or North Korea eventually, I suppose) would spontaneously attack the US in the name of justice for the countries in turmoil in the Middle East. Such a claim would not stand well, since it would be obvious that they were merely acting in their respective country's personal interest. Unless the governments had masses of dedicated followers, it might be a very difficult thing to justify, unless the hatred for the US runs deep enough for any justification to become irrelevant.
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Post by The Rogue on Dec 28, 2006 20:12:48 GMT -5
Well, China and Russia are already and have been opposed to US domination in the world. I just found out that John Edwards will be running for president in 2008. He believes that it is neccessary for the US to regain its leadership role in the world. Something might happen there.
OR maybe something like this will happen:
Russia, China, and India become new world superpowers along with the US. The US will feel threatened, and would ally itself with India, if anybody. Then, there might be a massive war between the superpowers.
On the note that there would be no real justification for attacking the US out of nowhere, well, al Qaeda did it, didn't they? And the US isn't very effective against them. If they aren't very effective against al Queda, then how effective will they be against the mass allied the military the other countries owuld form against it?
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Post by Raistlin Majere on Dec 28, 2006 23:01:02 GMT -5
You have a point concerning your last remark about Al Queda, they didn't have a great deal of obivous provocation, they simply attacked, seemingly out of the blue. This, however marked them as an out-of-control and out-for-blood, shamblin organization early on, and I am uncertain of whether or not Russia or China could stomach that image of themselves. Most likely they would set the war up diplomatically, or at least spout an anti-US rhetoric before outright attacking. I am likely not as well-versed in the past behaviour or predicted behaviour of these governments, so perhaps I am wrong.
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Post by The Rogue on Dec 28, 2006 23:46:04 GMT -5
Well, they could also set the US up any time now, make them seem like a cruel empire wanting to take over the world, and attack the US to "save the world". It's possible. Heck. It might even be Iraq.
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